Next Generation NDCs

2025 NDCs: Taking a Leap Forward in Climate Action 

By early 2025, countries are due to unveil new national climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These commitments form the foundation of the Paris Agreement, establishing targets that countries promise to implement and be measured against. The Paris Agreement requires parties to put forward new NDCs every five years, and each round of commitments must be stronger than the last.

The Paris Agreement also invites countries to submit “mid-century long-term low GHG emissions development strategies,” or “long-term strategies” which can help inform countries near-term action in their NDCs. Countries are invited to submit their long-term climate strategies by November 2024, shortly ahead of their NDC submission.

Learn more about Long-Term Climate Strategies

Why It's Crucial for Countries to Submit Ambitious NDCs

NDCs to date fall far short of the ambition needed to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Current commitments put the world on track for 2.5-2.9˚ C. Recent research shows that climate impacts are happening faster and with more severe consequences than previously thought, underscoring the urgent need to cut emissions, invest in adaptation and increase funding significantly.

Yet recent developments since the last round of NDCs could change how countries approach the next one. For example, many countries have committed to reaching net-zero emissions by about mid-century. This round of NDCs will cover until 2035, which marks the middle point between when countries started implementing their NDCs in 2020 and the target year of 2050 for global net zero. This makes them crucial for aligning short-term actions with long-term goals. New NDCs will also take into account the Global Stocktake, which urges countries to shift away from fossil fuels and transform sectors like transportation and agriculture. Additionally, cost-effective climate-solutions are now readily available. Electric vehicles have become cost-competitive with fossil fuel-powered cars in many markets, projected to reach 23% of the market by 2025, while zero-carbon technologies — such as solar and wind power — are widely mature and commercialized, and the cost of renewable energy, as well as complementary energy storage technologies, continues to plummet at remarkable rates. This serves as an unprecedented blueprint, encouraging countries to enhance their ambition like never before.

A Five-point Plan for Next Generation NDCs

By 2035, the world needs to shift to a radically different pathway to limit warming to 1.5˚ C and reaching net-zero by around mid-century. The NDCs that countries submit by next year will show in black and white which countries are committed to slash emissions quickly enough to get there.

WRI’s five-point plan offers a blueprint for success:

• Setting ambitious emissions reduction targets aligned with net-zero goals
• Accelerating sectoral transformations
• Building resilience across all systems
• Catalyzing investment
• Putting people at the center of climate action

By embracing these principles as they craft next-generation NDCs, countries can not only help avoid the devastating impacts of climate change but also unlock opportunities for sustainable development, job creation and better public health. Read more.

Beyond the urgency of addressing the climate crisis, countries will benefit in many other ways from enhancing their NDCs.

What emission reduction targets should countries aim for in their NDCs?

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human-caused emissions — like those from fossil-fueled vehicles and power plants — must be slashed by almost half from recent levels by 2030 and then reach net zero by early in the second half of the century to avoid the most dangerous and costly consequences of climate change. The current round of NDC updates plays a critical role in charting this course by setting the direction of travel over the next decade. Stronger NDCs can create the policy context to steer investments and attract climate finance. And they can provide transparency and accountability through national and multilateral processes.

To achieve net zero by mid-century, emissions must be reduced as low as possible, and any remaining emissions balanced with the equivalent amount of  carbon removal.